You Made It, And Now What? Understanding The Arrival Fallacy

After achieving a personal milestone, upgrading, or completing a long-term project, you might expect a wave of fulfillment. Instead, many people feel a surprising sense of emptiness or uncertainty, and the surprising, often quiet question comes up: “Why do I not feel the way I thought I would?” This is a widespread phenomenon, called the “Arrival Fallacy.” This article explores the often-overlooked emotional aftermath of success and delves into the question: Once we reach our goal, what comes next?

• Once I have enough money, I can buy a bigger house where I will finally be happy.

• Once I get hired by my dream airline, everything will fall into place.

• Once I become a captain, I will finally feel confident and respected.

• Once my startup is successful, I will stop feeling like I'm behind.

• Once I finish my type rating, I will not feel this pressure anymore.

• Once I have a stable schedule, my personal life will sort itself out.

• Once I lose 10 kilos, I will be happy with how I look.

Who has never experienced one of these thoughts? People like setting goals for themselves. Having something to strive for can be motivating and helps drive personal growth. In fact, it is highly valued in our goal-oriented society. Achieving results and personal success are often seen as the keys to happiness, and maybe now even more than ever, due to the daily exposure to social media.

Where it gets tricky is that we often set goals with the expectation that once we achieve them, we will be happier. In other words, we tie a strong sense of anticipated outcome to these goals. Reaching the goal may bring a sense of euphoria, but it is frequently short-lived. That euphoric feeling can quickly be replaced by feelings of disappointment, emptiness, or even sadness. Research shows that external achievements do not lead to lasting happiness, especially compared to deeper sources of happiness like meaningful relationships or personal growth.

Arrival Fallacy Explained

Coined by positive psychology expert Tal Ben‑Shahar, this term Arrival Fallacy describes the “illusion that once we make it, once we attain our goal or reach our destination, we will reach lasting happiness,” – Tal Ben-Shahar (Harvard)

The complexity of the arrival fallacy stems from the fact that while we work toward a goal, we already begin to form the expectation that we will actually achieve it. As a result, the brain's reward centers are already activated before the goal is reached. In a sense, we experience the reward in advance. When the moment of achievement finally arrives, it turns out to be less satisfying than expected. Every time we chase something expecting it to bring us happiness, only to be let down, our overall happiness takes another hit. When we are unhappy, we tend to chase happiness, thinking we will find it in external things like success or material goods. However, there is always another goal lurking just beyond reach; once a goal is achieved, it can always be more, better, or bigger.

Goals we want to achieve are often about wanting to heal from pain, stress, and sadness, and we subconsciously search for relief in (external) goals. There is the misconception that external achievements, such as money, performance improvements, or status, will make us happy.

However, research shows that these factors are not decisive in determining our sense of happiness, at least not in the long term. What has been shown to contribute to lasting wellbeing is experiencing meaningful relationships, celebrating small everyday wins, being able to let go of discomforts and irritations, and paying attention to simple things.

How the Arrival Fallacy Can Be Harmful

The Arrival Fallacy does not just leave us disappointed; it can actually cause real emotional harm in several ways.

• Endless Dissatisfaction: When we put off happiness until some future goal is met, we miss out on enjoying the present. This constant feeling of wanting more can wear us down, leading to stress and exhaustion.

• Fading Drive: If finally reaching a goal does not bring the joy we expected, it can make us question why we are even trying. That doubt can drain our motivation and cause us to lose interest or give up altogether.

• Harsh Self-Judgment: Achieving something big but still feeling empty often leads us to blame ourselves, instead of realizing that our expectations about happiness might be unrealistic.

• Neglected Connections: When we are always focused on the next goal, the important people around us can get pushed aside. Over time, this can cause loneliness and regret for lost time.

Arrival Fallacy in Aviation

For pilots in particular, reaching a long-anticipated goal can feel less satisfying than expected, and the ongoing pressure to perform at a high level adds complexity to this experience. This is an overview of how the arrival fallacy can uniquely impact pilots:

1. Aviation Is Built on Milestones

From the first solo flight to type ratings, flight hours, promotions, and ultimately reaching a legacy carrier or captain seat, the pilot's journey is often linear, goal-driven, and tightly structured. Each step is clearly defined and treated as a significant accomplishment. This naturally sets up the belief: “Once I reach X, I will feel fulfilled.”

2. Sacrifice
Pilots often sacrifice years of personal time, financial stability, and relationships to climb the ladder. When the payoff finally comes, the emotional expectation is high, and if the lived reality does not match the expectation, it can feel both disappointing and disorienting.

3. External Validation

Much of a pilot's value in the aviation world is tied to external measures of success: hours flown, airline status, aircraft type, and seniority. This makes it easier to equate self-worth with achievement and harder to find fulfillment outside of professional progress.

4. Cultural Pressure

The aviation community, especially among high achievers, often reinforces the message: Keep climbing. Next upgrade. Better schedule. More seniority. This treadmill encourages constant forward motion, but rarely provides space for reflection or emotional integration.

5. Emotional Suppression as a Norm

Pilots are trained to regulate emotion for safety and performance. While this is essential in the flight deck, it can also lead to numbing or dismissing personal emotional signals, like dissatisfaction or burnout, even when those feelings are valid.

6. Isolation

Aviation careers often lead to disrupted personal routines and limited social connections, making it harder to build emotional support systems. So when the “arrival fallacy” hits, many pilots process it alone, feeling like they “should” be happy.

The Cliché of the Journey and the Destination

As cliché as it may sound, it is about the journey—taking small steps and learning lessons along the way, not the destination. Happiness can only be experienced in the present moment. You do not know yet what will make you happy a month or several years from now. You do know what brings you joy right now. That might even be something you are looking forward to, but the feeling itself is happening now.

How To Reduce the Trap

There is nothing wrong with setting goals, and with some adjustments their effects can be more impactful. The following tips and reflections may help:

• Reconnect with your intrinsic motivation. Ask yourself the deeper “why.” When setting a goal, consider your inner intention. How does this larger goal support your personal growth? What will it truly bring you? Why does it matter to you?
  

• Focus on the process (the journey). What can you do daily, and what will you commit to? Notice the small victories along the way. Pause to reflect and enjoy them.
  

• Celebrate intentionally. Mark the transition with rituals or shared experiences that give meaning to the change.
  

• Do what you do with full attention. Be present in the moment. Joy and fulfillment are found in the now, not just in future results.
  

• Diversify your sense of purpose. Expanding your focus to include areas like relationships, mentorship, creativity, or community engagement help you build a more resilient and well-rounded identity—not a single role or achievement. This broader foundation can offer stability during transitions and sustain motivation over time.
  

• Check in with yourself regularly: When do I feel most alive? Is what I am doing now contributing to that feeling?
  

• Ask yourself often: What am I grateful for today?
  
  

• Put goals into a broader context. Try not to become focused on the outcome, making the journey itself become unenjoyable. Ride the highs and the lows. Keep in mind there is always a bigger picture and purpose behind your efforts. When you reach one goal, take time to re-evaluate and set your sights on the next.
  

• Let go of “I will be happy when…”
  Instead consider the phrases professional athletes often use when training; “trust the process” or “embrace the process.”  Live by that mindset. Often, the biggest growth happens during the journey, not at the finish line.
  

• Reframe. Reflect on what the achievement taught you, not just what you accomplished.
  

Final Thoughts

The pursuit of future goals can create a cycle of dissatisfaction, where happiness continuously seems just out of reach. Mindfulness exercises offer an alternative by shifting attention from future achievements to present fulfillment. Success is often more sustainable when it is rooted in personal growth.

When all the focus is placed on the finish line, it can heighten pressure and expectations, which can lead to discouragement when it is not met. That sense of “falling short” can easily trigger self-defeating thoughts like “I am not doing it right” or “I am not capable,” which is counterproductive, especially in the therapeutic or coaching process.Instead of aiming for fixed outcomes, in life and in therapy, it is often more effective to explore a general direction. The aim is to gently shift the focus to what is wanted, what feels helpful, hopeful, and possible, even if it is still unclear and far off.

            “Attaining lasting happiness requires that we enjoy the journey on our way toward a destination we deem valuable. Happiness is not about making it to the peak of the mountain, nor is it about climbing aimlessly around the mountain; happiness is the experience of climbing toward the peak.” – Tal Ben-Shahar (Harvard)

If you find yourself constantly striving for the next goal, yet still feeling unfulfilled, the good news is that there are other ways. Emerald Mental Health can help you shift away from pressure-filled goal-setting and instead explore a meaningful direction, an aim that feels nourishing, hopeful, and aligned with who you are. At Emerald Mental Health, the focus is not on chasing achievements, but on building a deeper connection to what matters to you. Whether you are feeling stuck, overwhelmed, or simply unsure of your next step, support is available to help you with more clarity and purpose. Reach out to reini@emeraldmentalhealth.com or visit www.emeraldmentalhealth.com to learn more.

Resources

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. (2023). Social isolation and loneliness.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/social-isolation-and-loneliness

Psychology Today. (2025, March 28). The overlooked and misunderstood arrival fallacy. In Mindfulness Insights. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mindfulness-insights/202503/the-overlooked-and-misunderstood-arrival-fallacy

Waldinger, R. (2015). What makes a good life? Lessons from the longest study on happiness [Video]. TED Conferences. https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_waldinger_what_makes_a_good_life_lessons_from_the_longest_study_on_happiness

Waldinger, R., & Schulz, M. S. (2023). The good life: Lessons from the world's longest scientific study of happiness. Simon & Schuster.